Will Hispanics Swing the Vote in November in the US?

The Pew Hispanic Center has just released results from a nationwide telephone survey of Hispanics 18 and older conducted during August and September of this year. According to these data, Hispanic registered voters are solidly (65 percent) supportive of candidates from the Democratic party--that's the good news for Democrats. The not-so-good news for Democrats is that scarcely half (51 percent) of those registered Hispanic voters expect to vote, which is considerably lower than the 70 percent among all registered voters.

Midterm elections typically have lower voter turnout than Presidential year elections, but if only 51 percent of Hispanics show up to vote, it will represent a very significant decline from the 2008 election. Data from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) show that 84 percent of registered Hispanic voters went to the polls in 2008, although that was lower than 90 percent among whites and 92 percent among blacks. At the same time, only 59 percent of Hispanic US citizens aged 18 and older are registered to vote, according to the CPS, well below the 74 percent among non-Hispanic whites and 69 percent among non-Hispanic blacks. Asians, however, have an even lower percent of citizens (55) registered to vote.