The End of AIDS?

This week is the 30th anniversary of the first AIDS cases being recognized as a cluster of diseases in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control, although the disease probably entered the country in the 1970s. Thirty years ago no one was sure exactly what this disease was. I have a copy of the Wall Street Journal from December 10, 1981 with the headline "Mysterious Ailment Plagues Drug Users, Homosexual Males." Only six years later it was a global emergency, and merited a separate essay in the Fourth Edition of my Population text, which came out in 1988. I ended that essay with the comment that "it also seems possible, however, that the massive resources that are being poured into research may yield a cure for AIDS." I thought about that comment as I pondered the Economist's cover story this week--23 years later--on "The End of Aids?" That question mark at the end is the most important part of the headline. The Associated Press offered this thought about it:

New E. Coli Outbreak Threatens Europeans

In 1935 Hans Zinsser reminded us that bugs are always waiting in the shadows "ready to pounce when neglect, poverty, famine, or war lets down the defenses." It seems this week that someone in Europe let down the defenses:

Scientists on Thursday blamed Europe's worst recorded food-poisoning outbreak on a "super-toxic" strain of E. coli bacteria that may be brand new.

But while suspicion has fallen on raw tomatoes, cucumbers and lettuce as the source of the germ, researchers have been unable to pinpoint the food responsible for the frightening illness, which has killed at least 18 people, sickened more than 1,600 and spread to least 10 European countries.

An alarmingly large number of victims — about 500 — have developed kidney complications that can be deadly.

Will China Feed Itself?

More than fifteen years ago, Lester Brown--then President of the Worldwatch Institute--published a widely cited book on "Who Will Feed China?" His concern was that China's rapid industrialization in the context of its huge and still growing population would mean that China would inevitably have to import food, and that could disrupt the global food supply. Lester Brown is now President of the Earth Policy Institute in Washington, DC, and recently raised the issue again in a podcast "Can the United States Feed China?" This has prompted a response in the latest issue of Nature from a Chinese agricultural specialist who divides his time between the US and China:

I thank Lester for his warning on food security in China, but I believe it is not a matter of whether China can feed itself. It is a matter of whether the Chinese people will choose to do so.

First, some history. China's grain production quadrupled from 1950 to 2010, and last year saw the largest ever harvest. Much of the grain that China imported last year was not for consumption, but for storage in case of crises. In fact, for the past 60 years, China has, with just 7–8% of the globe's agricultural land, fed about 22% of the world's population.